Improving Operational Efficiency

Cash flow forecasting is the process of estimating how much cash will come in and go out of the business over a given period.

That sounds simple. It isn’t.

Because forecasting depends on assumptions. And assumptions depend on people. And people are… let’s say, optimistic.

Treasury’s job is to take all those assumptions and turn them into something that resembles reality.

Why Cash Flow Forecasting Matters

Cash flow forecasting allows companies to:

• Anticipate liquidity shortages or surpluses 
• Plan funding or investment decisions 
• Support strategic initiatives 
• Avoid last-minute surprises 

Without a forecast, treasury is reactive. With a forecast, it can act ahead of time.

The difference is usually measured in cost, stress, and how often someone says “we didn’t see this coming.”

Different Forecast Horizons

Not all forecasts are the same.

• Short-term (daily to weekly)
  Focus on cash positioning and immediate liquidity needs 
• Medium-term (monthly to quarterly)
  Support planning, funding, and working capital management 
• Long-term (annual and beyond)
  Linked to strategic planning and capital structure decisions 

Each serves a different purpose and requires a different level of detail.

Short-term forecasts need accuracy.
Long-term forecasts need direction.

Confusing the two is a common mistake.

Sources of Forecast Data

Forecasts are built from multiple inputs:

• Sales projections 
• Accounts receivable and payable data 
• Payroll and operational expenses 
• Capex plans 
• Tax payments 
• Financing activities 

Treasury consolidates these inputs into a single view.

The challenge is not collecting data. It’s ensuring that data is:

• Complete 
• Consistent 
• Timely 

Which is where things usually start to fall apart.

The Reality of Forecast Accuracy

Everyone wants a “highly accurate” forecast.

Reality check: perfect accuracy doesn’t exist.

Forecasting is influenced by:

• Changing business conditions 
• Delays in payments 
• Unexpected expenses 
• Human assumptions 

Instead of chasing perfection, treasury focuses on:

• Improving accuracy over time 
• Understanding variances 
• Building confidence in the forecast 

A forecast that is directionally correct and consistently improved is far more valuable than one that looks precise but isn’t trusted.

Direct vs Indirect Forecasting

There are two main approaches:

• Direct forecasting
  Based on known cash flows, such as invoices and payments 
• Indirect forecasting
  Derived from P&L and balance sheet projections, typically through FP&A 

Direct forecasting is more accurate in the short term.
Indirect forecasting is useful for longer-term planning.

Most companies use a combination of both.

Rolling Forecasts

Static forecasts quickly become outdated.

Rolling forecasts are continuously updated, typically:

• Weekly for short-term views 
• Monthly for longer horizons 

This keeps the forecast relevant and allows treasury to adapt to changes.

It also creates more work. But useful work.

The Role of Technology

Forecasting can be supported by:

• ERP systems 
• TMS platforms 
• Data aggregation tools 
• Increasingly, AI and machine learning 

Technology helps:

• Consolidate data 
• Identify patterns 
• Reduce manual effort 

But it does not fix:

• Poor input data 
• Lack of ownership 
• Weak processes 

If the inputs are unreliable, the output will be too. Just faster.

Ownership and Accountability

One of the biggest challenges in forecasting is ownership.

Who is responsible for:

• Providing inputs 
• Validating assumptions 
• Updating data 

Without clear ownership:

• Inputs arrive late or incomplete 
• Forecasts lose credibility 
• Treasury spends more time chasing data than analysing it 

Clear roles and accountability improve both efficiency and accuracy.

Variance Analysis

Forecasting is not just about predicting. It’s about learning.

Treasury compares:

• Forecast vs actual 
• Identifies deviations 
• Understands root causes 

This feedback loop improves future forecasts and highlights structural issues.

Without it, forecasting becomes a repetitive exercise with limited value.

Where It Goes Wrong

Some familiar issues:

• Overly optimistic assumptions 
• Lack of input from key stakeholders 
• Fragmented data sources 
• No regular updates 
• No analysis of variances 

The result is a forecast that exists, but isn’t trusted.

Which defeats the purpose entirely.

Treasury’s Role in Forecasting

Treasury brings structure, discipline, and realism to forecasting.

It ensures:

• Cash flows are understood and projected 
• Liquidity risks are identified early 
• Decisions are based on forward-looking insight 

It doesn’t predict the future. It reduces uncertainty around it.

And in treasury, that’s about as close as you get to control.

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Treasury is often regarded as one of the most critical functions within a corporate structure, yet it is sometimes underestimated or misunderstood by those outside of finance. The role of treasury extends far beyond just handling cash flow—it is vital to the financial health, risk management, and long-term success of a business. Treasury acts as the guardian of a company’s financial resources, ensuring liquidity, minimizing risks, and enabling strategic decision-making.

The Vital Importance of Treasury in Corporate Strategy

At its core, treasury provides a foundation for businesses to grow, invest, and operate efficiently. By overseeing cash management, financing, and risk mitigation, treasury ensures that companies have the resources needed to capitalize on opportunities and navigate market challenges. Without a well-functioning treasury, companies risk facing liquidity issues, financial instability, and missed strategic opportunities.

Treasury plays a direct role in achieving corporate objectives—whether that’s expanding operations, making acquisitions, or ensuring that a business can weather economic downturns. Treasury helps businesses balance short-term needs with long-term growth by ensuring that capital is properly allocated and financial risks are minimized.

How Treasury Impacts Financial Operations

1. Liquidity Management: Treasury is responsible for maintaining optimal liquidity levels within a company, ensuring that funds are available when needed to meet obligations such as payroll, supplier payments, and debt servicing. Without sufficient liquidity, a company could face insolvency, even if it is profitable on paper.
2. Risk Management and Hedging: Treasury mitigates financial risks, including currency fluctuations, interest rate changes, and commodity price volatility. Effective risk management allows companies to avoid unexpected financial losses that could derail operations. Treasury’s role in hedging and risk assessment helps companies remain resilient in an unpredictable global market.
3. Access to Capital: Treasury ensures that a company can access financing when required, whether through debt, equity, or alternative financing methods. By managing the company’s capital structure, treasury optimizes the mix of financing sources, ensuring that funds are available for growth initiatives, acquisitions, or to cover operational costs.
4. Strategic Financial Planning: Treasury collaborates with other departments and senior management to forecast future cash flows and financial needs. By providing financial insights and performance metrics, treasury supports decision-making and ensures the company’s financial goals align with its overall corporate strategy.

The Link Between Treasury and Business Performance

A well-run treasury function has a direct, positive impact on a company’s profitability. Efficient cash management and effective risk mitigation reduce operational costs, lower financing expenses, and improve profitability. Treasury also helps streamline the financial infrastructure, ensuring that the business is not wasting resources on unnecessary financial expenses.

For corporations to remain competitive, treasury plays an essential role in driving operational efficiency and securing long-term stability. With treasurers constantly monitoring the financial landscape, they can adapt to changing conditions and make informed decisions that safeguard the company’s future.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, treasury is far more than just a back-office function. It is an integral part of corporate strategy that drives financial stability, supports growth, and ensures operational efficiency. By managing cash flow, financial risks, and access to capital, treasury enables businesses to meet their objectives, navigate uncertainty, and thrive in a competitive environment.

For companies to succeed in today’s complex financial world, having a strong, strategic treasury function is not just an option—it’s a necessity.

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Treasury is evolving. Slowly in some areas, rapidly in others.

The core responsibilities remain the same, cash, risk, funding, control. But how those responsibilities are executed is changing.

Technology, data, regulation, and business expectations are all reshaping the role. Which means treasury careers are changing with it.

From Operational to Strategic

The direction is clear.

Less time spent on:

• Manual processes 
• Data collection 
• Reconciliation 

More time spent on:

• Analysis 
• Decision-making 
• Strategic support 

Automation and integration are gradually removing operational workload. Not completely, but enough to shift focus.

Treasury is moving from execution to influence.

The Rise of Data and Analytics

Data is becoming central.

Future treasury professionals need to:

• Understand data structures 
• Work with analytics tools 
• Interpret large data sets 

It’s no longer enough to produce reports.

You need to:

• Explain what the data means 
• Identify trends 
• Support decisions 

Which requires a different skill set than traditional operational roles.

Technology as a Core Competency

Technology is no longer optional.

Treasury professionals need to be comfortable with:

• TMS platforms 
• ERP systems 
• Bank connectivity solutions 
• Automation tools 

Not as developers, but as users who understand:

• How systems interact 
• What data flows look like 
• Where issues can arise 

Because technology increasingly shapes how treasury operates.

Automation and AI Impact

Automation will continue to:

• Reduce manual work 
• Improve efficiency 
• Increase consistency 

AI will:

• Support forecasting 
• Enhance data analysis 
• Improve fraud detection 

But neither will replace treasury professionals.

They will:

• Change the nature of work 
• Require new skills 
• Shift focus towards higher-value activities 

The repetitive work goes first. The thinking stays.

Increased Strategic Involvement

Treasury is becoming more involved in:

• Corporate strategy 
• Investment decisions 
• Risk planning 
• M&A activity 

This requires:

• Broader business understanding 
• Strong communication skills 
• Ability to influence decisions 

The role becomes less technical in isolation and more integrated into the business.

Regulatory Complexity

Regulation is not going away.

It will:

• Increase 
• Evolve 
• Require continuous attention 

Treasury professionals need to:

• Stay informed 
• Adapt processes 
• Ensure compliance 

Which adds another layer of complexity to the role.

Globalisation and Complexity

Companies continue to:

• Expand internationally 
• Operate across multiple currencies 
• Deal with diverse regulations 

Treasury needs to manage:

• Cross-border liquidity 
• FX exposure 
• Local banking structures 

Global complexity will continue to shape treasury roles.

New Career Opportunities

The evolution of treasury creates new roles:

• Treasury data and analytics specialists 
• Treasury technology experts 
• Transformation and project leads 
• Risk and compliance specialists 

The traditional path still exists, but it’s expanding.

The Human Factor Remains

Despite all the technology, treasury remains a people-driven function.

Professionals need to:

• Communicate effectively 
• Manage stakeholders 
• Make decisions under uncertainty 

Technology supports. People decide.

Where Expectations Go Wrong

Some common misconceptions:

• Technology will fully automate treasury 
• AI will replace decision-making 
• Operational roles will disappear completely 

Reality:

• Complexity remains 
• Exceptions always exist 
• Human judgment is still required 

The role changes. It doesn’t disappear.

Treasury Careers Going Forward

Future treasury professionals will need:

• Strong financial understanding 
• Data and system awareness 
• Analytical thinking 
• Communication and influence 

A broader skill set than before.

Which makes the role more interesting. And slightly more demanding.

Treasury’s Direction

Treasury is becoming:

• More data-driven 
• More technology-enabled 
• More strategically involved 

It’s not a revolution. It’s an evolution.

Gradual, sometimes messy, but clearly moving in one direction.

And for people in treasury, that means one thing.

Standing still is not really an option anymore.

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Every company has goals. Growth targets, expansion plans, margin improvements, maybe a bold “we’re going global” announcement somewhere in a slide deck.

Treasury’s job is to translate those goals into financial reality. Not to challenge the ambition, but to make sure the path towards it doesn’t accidentally break the company.

Because goals without financial alignment tend to end in last-minute funding scrambles, currency surprises, or liquidity stress. None of which look great in a board meeting.

What Alignment Actually Means

Aligning treasury with corporate goals means one thing: treasury understands where the business is going, and the business understands what treasury needs to support that journey.

In practice, that means:

• Growth plans are linked to funding strategies 
• Expansion decisions consider currency and liquidity impact 
• Investment plans are reflected in cash forecasts 
• Risk appetite is clearly defined and applied 

It’s not about treasury approving strategy. It’s about making sure strategy is executable.

Growth Has a Price Tag

Growth is rarely free. It requires:

• Working capital 
• Capex investments 
• Market entry costs 
• Potential acquisitions 

Treasury ensures that:

• Funding is available when needed 
• Liquidity buffers remain intact 
• Financing structures can support expansion 

The mistake many companies make is assuming funding will “figure itself out later.” It won’t. Or it will, but at a higher cost and under more pressure.

Entering New Markets

New markets look attractive on paper. New revenue streams, diversification, growth potential.

Treasury sees something else:

• New currencies 
• New banking requirements 
• Potential restrictions on cash movement 
• Local financing needs 
• Regulatory differences 

Ignoring these factors early leads to classic problems like trapped cash, inefficient structures, or unnecessary FX exposure.

None of these kill the strategy. They just make it more expensive and harder to manage.

Risk Appetite: The Uncomfortable Conversation

Every company has a risk appetite. Few define it clearly.

Treasury helps translate vague statements into practical boundaries:

• How much FX risk are we willing to take? 
• Do we hedge systematically or selectively? 
• How much leverage is acceptable? 
• How much liquidity buffer do we want? 

Without clear answers, decisions become inconsistent. One business unit hedges everything, another hedges nothing, and treasury sits in the middle trying to impose some logic.

Liquidity as a Strategic Enabler

Liquidity is often treated as a safety net. In reality, it’s a strategic enabler.

Having access to cash allows companies to:

• Invest quickly when opportunities arise 
• Absorb shocks without panic 
• Negotiate from a position of strength 

Treasury ensures that liquidity is not just sufficient, but also accessible. Because cash sitting in the wrong entity or country is not particularly helpful when you need it elsewhere.

Timing and Communication

Alignment is less about frameworks and more about timing and communication.

Treasury needs to be involved:

• During planning cycles, not after 
• In discussions about new initiatives 
• When assumptions are being set 

And the business needs:

• Clear input from treasury, not vague warnings 
• Practical solutions, not just constraints 

If treasury only shows up to say “this is risky,” it gets ignored. If it shows up with options, it becomes relevant.

The Reality of Misalignment

When treasury and corporate goals are not aligned, a few predictable things happen:

• Funding needs are underestimated 
• Liquidity pressure appears unexpectedly 
• FX exposures grow unnoticed 
• Banking structures lag behind expansion 
• Decisions get delayed because financial implications weren’t considered 

None of this usually shows up immediately. It builds over time, then becomes visible at the worst possible moment.

Treasury’s Role in Making Strategy Work

Treasury doesn’t define where the company goes. It ensures the company can actually get there.

It brings:

• Financial structure to strategic ideas 
• Visibility into cash and funding 
• Discipline around risk and liquidity 
• A realistic view on what is feasible 

That combination doesn’t make strategy less ambitious. It makes it more likely to succeed.

Which, despite appearances, is kind of the point.

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Resilience in treasury is about one simple question: can the company withstand stress without breaking?

Not just survive a bad month, but handle shocks, volatility, and unexpected events without losing control of its financial position.

It’s not glamorous. It doesn’t show up in quarterly highlights. But when things go wrong, it becomes the only thing that matters.

What Financial Resilience Means

Financial resilience is the ability to:

• Maintain liquidity under stress 
• Continue operations during disruption 
• Absorb financial shocks 
• Adapt to changing market conditions 

It’s not about avoiding risk entirely. It’s about being prepared for it.

Liquidity Buffers

Liquidity is the first line of defence.

Treasury ensures:

• Sufficient cash reserves 
• Access to committed credit facilities 
• Flexibility in funding sources 

These buffers allow the company to:

• Meet obligations even when cash inflows slow down 
• Avoid forced decisions under pressure 

Holding liquidity has a cost. Not having it has consequences.

Diversification

Resilience depends on not relying too heavily on a single point.

Treasury diversifies:

• Banking partners 
• Funding sources 
• Currencies 
• Markets 

This reduces vulnerability.

If one source becomes unavailable, others remain.

Scenario Planning and Stress Testing

Treasury prepares for scenarios such as:

• Revenue decline 
• Market disruptions 
• Interest rate spikes 
• Currency volatility 

It assesses:

• Impact on liquidity 
• Funding requirements 
• Covenant headroom 

This allows proactive planning instead of reactive decision-making.

Flexible Funding Structures

Rigid structures reduce resilience.

Treasury builds flexibility through:

• Undrawn credit facilities 
• Staggered debt maturities 
• Access to multiple markets 

This ensures that funding can be adjusted as conditions change.

Risk Management as a Stability Tool

Managing risk contributes directly to resilience.

• Hedging reduces volatility 
• Exposure management limits downside 
• Policies create consistency 

This stabilises cash flows and financial results.

Operational Resilience

Resilience is not just financial.

Treasury ensures:

• Reliable payment processes 
• Secure systems 
• Backup procedures 

So that operations continue even if systems or processes are disrupted.

Access to Cash

Having cash is not enough. It needs to be accessible.

Treasury manages:

• Cash location 
• Transferability 
• Legal and regulatory constraints 

Because trapped cash does not help in a crisis.

Where It Goes Wrong

Some common issues:

• Insufficient liquidity buffers 
• Overreliance on a single funding source 
• Concentrated banking relationships 
• Lack of scenario planning 
• Ignoring early warning signals 

These issues often remain hidden in stable conditions.

They become critical under stress.

The Value of Resilience

Resilience does not maximise short-term returns.

It:

• Reduces risk 
• Provides stability 
• Enables long-term performance 

It’s a trade-off.

Less efficient in the short term
More secure in the long term

Treasury manages that balance.

Treasury’s Role

Treasury ensures that:

• The company can withstand shocks 
• Financial stability is maintained 
• Liquidity remains available 

It prepares for scenarios no one wants to face.

And if it does its job well, those preparations remain invisible.

Which is exactly how it should be.

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Payments used to be straightforward. You had money, you sent it, done.

Now there are layers of regulation shaping how payments are initiated, authenticated, processed, and reported. Treasury sits right in the middle of this.

These frameworks are designed to make payments safer, more transparent, and more competitive. They also make them more complex.

Why Payments Are Regulated

Regulators focus on payments because they are:

• High volume 
• Cross-border 
• Prone to fraud and misuse 

The objectives are to:

• Increase security 
• Prevent fraud and financial crime 
• Improve transparency 
• Encourage competition and innovation 

For treasury, this means adapting processes to comply with evolving rules.

Key Payment Regulations

In Europe and beyond, treasury is impacted by frameworks such as:

• PSD2 and PSD3 (Payment Services Directive)
  Introducing stronger authentication, open banking, and increased transparency 
• SEPA regulations
  Standardising euro payments across participating countries 
• ISO20022 standards
  Defining structured payment data formats 
• Local payment regulations
  Country-specific rules on processing, reporting, and data 

Each of these influences how payments are executed and managed.

Strong Customer Authentication (SCA)

One of the most visible impacts of regulation is Strong Customer Authentication.

This requires:

• Multi-factor authentication 
• Additional verification steps for payment approval 

For treasury, this affects:

• Payment workflows 
• Approval processes 
• System configurations 

While it improves security, it can also:

• Slow down execution 
• Increase operational complexity 

Balancing security and efficiency becomes key.

Open Banking and APIs

Regulation has also driven innovation.

Open banking frameworks require banks to:

• Provide access to account data 
• Enable payment initiation via APIs 

This creates opportunities for treasury:

• Real-time data access 
• Improved integration 
• New payment solutions 

But it also introduces:

• New dependencies 
• Additional security considerations 

Because more connectivity means more potential points of failure.

Data Requirements and Standardisation

Payment regulations increasingly require:

• Structured data 
• Detailed payment information 
• Consistent formats 

ISO20022 is a key driver here.

It enables:

• Richer payment data 
• Better reconciliation 
• Improved transparency 

But it also requires:

• System updates 
• Data standardisation 
• Process adjustments 

Which, unsurprisingly, takes time.

Cross-Border Payments

Cross-border payments are subject to:

• Additional regulations 
• Reporting requirements 
• Compliance checks 

Treasury needs to consider:

• Local restrictions 
• Currency controls 
• Reporting obligations 

What looks like a simple international payment can involve multiple regulatory layers.

Fraud Prevention and Controls

Regulation pushes for stronger fraud prevention.

This includes:

• Verification of payee 
• Enhanced monitoring of transactions 
• Stricter approval processes 

Treasury integrates these into:

• Payment workflows 
• Supplier onboarding processes 
• Control frameworks 

Security improves. Friction increases. That’s the trade-off.

Impact on Treasury Operations

Payments regulation affects:

• System design 
• Process flows 
• Approval structures 
• Bank connectivity 

Treasury needs to:

• Stay informed on regulatory changes 
• Update processes accordingly 
• Ensure systems remain compliant 

Ignoring updates is not an option. Banks will enforce them anyway.

Where It Goes Wrong

Some common issues:

• Underestimating implementation effort 
• Poor data quality affecting compliance 
• Outdated systems unable to support new standards 
• Lack of coordination between IT, treasury, and compliance 
• Treating regulation as a one-time project 

Payment regulation evolves continuously. So do the requirements.

Treasury’s Role

Treasury ensures that payment processes:

• Comply with regulatory frameworks 
• Remain secure and efficient 
• Support business operations 

It translates regulation into practical processes.

Because in treasury, sending money is no longer just operational.

It’s regulated, structured, and continuously evolving.

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When treasury has excess cash, the instinct from the outside is simple: invest it and earn a return.

From the inside, it’s slightly different: don’t lose it, keep it accessible, and if possible earn something on top.

That order matters. A lot.

Treasury investments are not about chasing returns. They are about preserving capital, maintaining liquidity, and managing risk across different instruments.

The Treasury Investment Objective

Treasury typically follows three priorities:

1. Capital preservation 
2. Liquidity 
3. Yield 

In that order.

If you flip that order, you’re no longer doing treasury. You’re doing something else. Usually with more volatility and less sleep.

The Investment Spectrum

Treasury invests across a range of instruments, depending on policy, risk appetite, and liquidity needs.

Common instruments include:

• Bank deposits (overnight, term deposits) 
• Money market funds 
• Commercial paper 
• Government and high-grade corporate bonds 
• Short-term investment funds 

Each sits somewhere on a spectrum between:

• Low risk, high liquidity, low return 
• Higher risk, lower liquidity, higher return 

Treasury constantly balances where to position itself on that spectrum.

Credit Risk in Investments

Every investment carries credit risk.

Even a simple bank deposit is effectively exposure to that bank.

Treasury evaluates:

• Credit ratings of counterparties 
• Financial stability 
• Concentration of exposure 
• Limits per institution 

The goal is to avoid situations where a single counterparty failure creates a material loss.

Because recovering lost capital is significantly harder than earning a bit of extra yield.

Liquidity Risk in Investments

An investment is only useful if it can be accessed when needed.

Treasury considers:

• Maturity profiles 
• Redemption terms 
• Market liquidity 

Locking cash into long-term instruments may improve yield, but reduces flexibility.

And flexibility is exactly what treasury needs when cash requirements change unexpectedly.

Market Risk

Even low-risk investments can be exposed to market movements.

Interest rate changes can impact:

• Bond valuations 
• Investment returns 
• Reinvestment opportunities 

Treasury typically limits exposure to market volatility by:

• Keeping durations short 
• Avoiding complex or volatile instruments 
• Aligning investments with liquidity needs 

Again, the goal is stability, not speculation.

Diversification

Diversification reduces risk, but adds complexity.

Treasury spreads investments across:

• Multiple counterparties 
• Different instruments 
• Various maturities 

This reduces dependency on any single exposure.

At the same time, it requires more monitoring and control. Which treasury happily accepts, because concentration risk is worse.

Policy and Limits

Treasury investments are governed by strict policies.

These define:

• Approved instruments 
• Counterparty limits 
• Maturity limits 
• Credit rating thresholds 

Without these, investment decisions become inconsistent and potentially risky.

Policies create discipline. Discipline protects capital.

The Temptation of Yield

Low interest environments create pressure.

“Can we earn more on our cash?”
“Are we being too conservative?”

This is where treasury needs to stay disciplined.

Chasing yield often means:

• Taking on more credit risk 
• Locking in longer maturities 
• Using more complex instruments 

Which might work for a while. Until it doesn’t.

And when it doesn’t, the downside tends to outweigh the incremental yield earned.

Where It Goes Wrong

Some familiar patterns:

• Overconcentration in a single bank or fund 
• Extending maturities beyond liquidity needs 
• Investing in instruments not fully understood 
• Relaxing credit standards for higher returns 
• Lack of monitoring of existing investments 

None of these feel like big decisions at the time. They accumulate.

Treasury’s Role in Investments

Treasury ensures that excess cash:

• Remains safe 
• Stays accessible 
• Generates appropriate returns within defined risk limits 

It’s not about outperforming markets. It’s about avoiding losses while maintaining flexibility.

Which, in the world of corporate treasury, is already considered a success.

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